One thing that I will say about Bitcoin as an OTC broker (on the side)is that there has been a serious dry-up on sell orders in the OTC markets. Yes, there are people that are selling, but the deals are not nearly as sweet to be completely honest. The discounts are a lot shallower and the flexibility in negotiations has become much stiffer. In addition, the buy orders have grown to outrageous volumes and the sell orders are coming in smaller tranches from whales with so much $BTC that even a $1k profit suffices.
Earlier it was a game of hot potato. Now, it appears to be more so of a game of chicken with the bears and bulls (lots of animals involved here). It seems that the bulls are daring the bears to cross over $6k and finally send Bitcoin into the dark realm of $5k. It also looks like the bears are daring the bulls to try to make a run for it.
The battle field has remained in the $6k range for the better part of the last few weeks:
As you can see above, the price of #Bitcoin $BTC has been gridlocked since June 10th, 2018.
The 4H chart has been looking good. LSMA crossed on July 12th.
What is the LSMA?
It stands for ‘least squares moving average’.
The reason why I’ve been going with the LSMA is because I feel that it best fits the situation since the price has been ‘trending’ on the 4H charts.
As you can see above, it works wonders for most of the lower TF charts.
Back to my $BTC analysis:
It appears Bitcoin bounced off of very strong support at $6.2k and now the next stop (in terms of major resistance) would be $6.8k again.
Both are equally as strong in my opinion, and any substantial price movement above $6.8k or below $6.2k would hold a lot of meaning at this point in time.
Now, here’s another major reason why $6.8k is looking like a very interesting mark to beat:
This is also where the long-term downtrend resistance from December 17th is at as well. ^
For some odd reason, we stopped talking about this downtrend resistance after the crypto community thought that it was breached back in April 2018.
A major break above that $6.8k point could send the price upward of $8k+.
As you can see, the EMA-50 (depicted in the chart above) is ALSO hanging at $6.8k.
This is a very magical point for Bitcoin right now and this next leap up toward this downtrend resistance may its last chance before it seriously gets throttled back for a much longer period of time.
I’m not going to go into any more indicators, because looking at the immediate price action is not what should be priority right now.
The priority for everyone should be evaluating whether Bitcoin is going to crack $6.8k or bust below $6.2k.
Thus, if it were up to me (not financial advice!), I would place a long trade on Bitcoin right now with a stop/loss around $6.1k.
Or I would hedge with my money 50/50 to maximize the potential earnings that I make.
On a risk/reward level, this is something that feels so intuitive its almost as if Bitcoin is giving away free money at this point.
That means entire portfolio = 50% fiat/ 50% Bitcoin. Wait until $BTC hits $6.8k (if it does), then cash out on the bounce, take all cash and re- up back into altcoins that start shooting.
If the price drops, then you wait until it hits whatever resting point that it will hit before the eventual bounce (because price always bounces on a downtrend, price is not linear); then you cash out your remaining Bitcoin and then take all of the cash remaining and buy more $BTC and ride that wave on the way back up and then cash out once it hits another “peak”.
Rinse and repeat.
I’ve done this several times in this market and I have been making a killing doing it.
This should show everyone that you do not need to overtrade in order to be successful in the wacky world of crypto.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this post is financial advice and I am not a financial adviser. If there is any information about positions that are mentioned in this article, they are entirely hypothetical and not meant to be presented as a course of action that you should take. I am merely using examples to help inspire independent ideas by traders based on their own personal situations.
I also do have an incidental amount of Bitcoin.