Sorry if it appears as though I have been MIA. I’ve been spending the last few hours just curating all of these documents and getting another indicator ready (these things are ridiculously fucking potent). I’ll show you what they were showing me on the 1D chart.
The volatility indicator has been absolute fucking fire though. Believe me. I’ll get into that in a second too. Let’s go ahead and look at Bitcoin in the meantime.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
As you can see in the picture above Bitcoin broke straight through that $6.4k resistance that we labeled earlier, and now it’s sitting at $6.6k.
That’s the one hour chart above, so we know that this just happened within the last few hours (4–8 ish). I figured that the volatility would have to pickup though because Bitcoin has been in this pattern where it doesn’t consolidate for any more than about a day or two (24–48 hours). 40+ hours is on the longer side of things. It’s usually a bit after 24 hours that the price movement gets to going again (4%+ moves).
That’s just from what I’ve observed and plotted on Bitcoin. So, I’d imagine that everyone should get comfortable at this price level for the rest of the day. We’ll see how things progress. I expected that the candles would start to wane. Let’s look at my new indicator (yup, this bad boy is ready for action).
This is the volatility indicator above ^^. Programmed on a Bollinger’s %B style chart. So, consider the top and the bottom to be like ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ ranges respectively. Those exact terms should not be used because we are not referring to price in the chart above.
This is the 6H chart (random, but a bit more effective than the 4H — I like this one). We knew that we were in a continued period of consolidation from the chart above. Pattern shows that we’re still do for more consolidation before we get a huge bounce.
Imo, when you match this up w the RSI on the daily (plus volatility on the daily) — I think that Bitcoin is in for a beautiful month, as we stated all the way above ^^^^^^ (scroll a couple days back).
Let’s go check out that RSI.
I’m more concerned with the overall direction of the RSI more so than ‘oversold’ or ‘overbought’ at this point in time. From where we are, we haven’t even crossed the ‘50’ mark for the RSI (conventional buy signal), so we might have a bit of a ways to go.
Also, from what I’ve studied and observed on Bitcoin, it typically takes the entire month before it gets all the way to the overbought/oversold region from the other end.
Looking at some overbought indicators on the 6H and lower TF, so consolidation seems like an almost ‘must’ at this point and/or a return down to $6.4k to test that as a support in the short-term.
However, I see this doing #s in the longer term.