So, the following charts are an examination of the the last major bear market (2013–2015) that people frequently mention.
That peak you see up there is from November 2013. What’s interesting is the break of that 1.5 year+ downtrend, before the price fell off of a cliff around August of 2015.
After that, the price did rebound again and continue forward in a pretty even-keeled manner and there wasn’t another major drop in price until what we’ve just experienced now.
This is what a lot of traders have most commonly pointed out in the last 24 hours as the warning sign that a break in the long-term downtrend may not mean that we’re out of the woods because Bitcoin has broken such a downtrend before and then plummeted back below it a few short weeks/months later.
I agree with them to some extent. We should be wary of this possibility. However, I think it’s necessary to note the circumstances that led to that particular drop in price.
From this article on CoinDesk (before Blockstream purchase 😎)
So, we know it was an event-driven decline. I think the fragility of the market was at an ATH because Mt. Gox really fucked people up and anything shaky going on with exchanges was met with very low-tolerance in the community at that point.
Also, for my bitcoin history buffs — this was when Bitcoin XT launched.
So, another thing worth noting is that the issue of how the Bitcoin protocol was going to scale was a major source of contention. Mike Hearn and Gavin Andresen had decided to initiate Bitcoin XT (BIP101; https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0101.mediawiki)
This was pretty substantial because these two guys were Core developers and there were only 5 at the time (I believe, don’t quote me). So, 40% of your dev team having an ideological split on the direction of the currency is enough to make any logical investors observe the situation and say ‘Maybe, I should jump ship’.
As a bonus history lesson ^ this was regarding the debate on increasing the block size vs. off-chain scaling solution. Not going to dig too deep into the politics of this. Wrote about it on the CryptoMedication Medium for all those that are interested.
Just know that this was basically the very first precursors of what would eventually end in a failed SegWit2x proposal and the birth of Bitcoin Cash.
You pick whatever side you’re on with this.
Edit: In my opinion, if there’s no one’s life on the line — it’s never really that deep. But maybe that’s just me.
I Say All of This to Bring us Back Home to This Chart Here:
I don’t think we’re in a similar situation unless we get smacked with a slew of really negative fucked up news.
That’s pretty much what happened following Mt. Gox.
Even if you look earlier in the chart, it looks like there was a slight recovery around May of 2014, but Mt. Gox-related news was still hitting the fan. Hard.
If you think you’ve heard ‘FUD’ now — 2014+2015 were absolutely unreal.
Check out this article: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-2014-year-review/
That concludes today’s history lesson. Hopefully some of the information was at least insightful.
It’s never enough to simply look at charts of 2014 or any other year in the past and use that as a baseline for comparison.
You have to really examine what specific events/sentiment/news really drove the price during those times.
This is a really great overview of all major price events that have ever happened in the history of Bitcoin. There are a lot of things that are in here that I believe people are currently unaware of or simply forgot over the course of time.