Bitcoin Price Analysis 4–9–2018

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Photo Credit: NYMag ; dope ass illustration

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So, if you take a look above (4H TF) — as I mentioned in the last price analysis that I conducted on $BTC, if the price breaks above that resistance line that I indicated in our prior price analysis on April 7th, 2018:

It appears that I was wrong about predicting that it won’t be broken.

Regardless, the overall advice and the maxim that I generally live by when it comes to trading is that when resistances/supports are broken, this usually confers something fairly substantial when it comes to price movement.

Let’s take a look at the volume for this (4H TF):

Above in the 4H TF, we see another really good sign for bulls. That last candle that I circled has closed entirely above the EMA-50. This means that this EMA-50 will now serve as support.

That doesn’t mean that this point can’t be broken ever. But technically, when the price candles close entirely above the EMA-50, that is a bullish sign that the price will continue to increase for the short-term at least.

Let’s look at some previous (more recent) examples of when the entire candle closed above the EMA-50.’

So, last time that this occurred was on March 20th on the 4H chart. There was a 8% (approx.) appreciation of the price from that point forward.

This is definitely something to keep in mind when considering price targets.

Let’s see if we can find some other information from the indicators that can help us to predict where BTC’s price movement will travel from here.

MACD is currently trending up at this point. Another good sign. I’m not the biggest fan of MACD in sideways trading markets, but it’s useful when you can see a run-up in the price like what we have here:

Below, it’s worth taking a look at some of the momentum indicators for Bitcoin (4H chart still):

The RSI has done us justice in the last few periods and has made some substantive gains. It’s not in the oversold area yet, so there’s still more room to climb.

However, the rate of change indicator for the RSI ( basically showing the speed of the incline — good for tracking stuff that our eyes can’t see) is indicating that the momentum on this run can be waning.

Check it out below:

As you can see, in recent periods, the momentum has virtually fallen off of a cliff.

As we know, when it comes to RSI, this is the most pure and early indicator of divergence that you may ever come across. This is always a pro-hint that you may end up getting rocked with a reversal in price soon. Especially when reviewing the lower volume in recent periods than what the start of the movement was spiked with.

The rate of change for the EMA 10 and EMA 20 indicators are also signaling the same thing. For a long time the EMA 10 (white line) was accelerating at a higher rate than the EMA 20 (blue line).

However, these rates of change are looking like they’re now about to converge and eventually switch positions (EMA 20 > EMA 10).

Please note that this chart only tracks the rate of change, not the actual position of the EMA 10 AND EMA 20 indicators, respectively.

Below is the actual position of those two MA indicators:

As you can see, the fast (EMA-10) is well above the slow (EMA-20). However, our rate of change indicator on these is giving an early signal that there may be a convergence in the near future. This is definitely a sign that I would watch for if you know how to implement both of these signals.

For those that don’t, do not fear, you can shoot me off a PM/DM/invoice/inbox and I’ll do my best to break it down better for you.

Now here are some of the plotted resistance points that I have for $BTC:

That diagonal line that you see right above the price of $BTC comes from the second peak for the double-top pattern that occurred when the price run-up was at $11.5k
There’s a lot of information in the chart above, but take some time to process it first before we get back to where the strongest point of resistance will be for $BTC (4H chart).

What’s my prediction?

We’re headed back down to make a test at that $6.8k after a rejection at $7.2k. I don’t like projecting price movements because anything can happen and this prediction is by no means a commitment here.

For instance, if I see that the price breaks that $7.2k resistance with volume, then I’m definitely going to get another heavy long bag and then plot everything that I just did in here all over again and re-assess where I think that bitcoin will end up at.

But folks love price prediction, so that’s what I think would happen.

Where do I think it would go after that? To where the price bottom was at last time:

So to $7.2k then to $6.5k. Perhaps some intermediate stops and short $25–50 thrusts on the way, but I don’t anticipate that there will be anything remarkable happening in the near future here. So, as always. Be careful, invest smart and save your $$.

Watch for breakouts in volume/supports/resistances and use the indicators as your guide for how the price may interact with these diff elements on the chart that you see. If you do all that, you should be TA’ing up a storm.

Notice that we only used about 4–5 indicators throughout this whole thing (max). Everything else is just an indicator of an indicator, which is used to give us a greater perspective of where the price movement will be in the future.

The goal is not to be a psychic. The goal is to get a sense of price direction. Price is always movement, so there’s never a ‘bottom’ or a ‘top’ in my opinion and your target will never be a permanent one. So it’s better to develop a strategy that is suitable for your investment preferences/risk tolerance and operate from there.

Kapeesh?

Cool. Good luck everyone!

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